May Election Analysis: Lubbock City Council District 4
District 4 is headed to a runoff.
Paul Beane won a plurality of the votes with 45.33% (about 3,100 votes) of the vote, with just under 7,000 votes cast total. Jerry Bell won 31.57% of the vote, and Tom Keisling won 23.10% of the vote. Bell and Beane will face off with early voting beginning on Tuesday.
Let’s look at how the May 10 election went:

As you can see from the map above, Paul Beane did well throughout the district.
In my mind, it’s not clear what Tom Keisling’s supporters will do in this runoff election. Will they support Bell, Beane, or stay home? Since District 4 has excellent turnout no matter the election, the preference of Tom Keisling’s supporters is likely to be one of the deciding factors of the runoff election.
Another deciding factor will be which way the highest-turnout precincts lean. Precinct 54 (Honey Elementary) alone accounts for nearly 18% (1,194 votes) of the total vote and is always the highest-turnout precinct in any election in Lubbock County.
Other high-turnout precincts in this election are:
- Precinct 52 (11%)
- Precinct 127 (10%)
- Precinct 12 (10%)
- Precinct 30 (9%)
- Precinct 123 (8%)
As with District 2, the outcome of the runoff election is unclear. Both candidates have their work cut out for them.
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