Lubbock Left

District 4 is headed to a runoff.

Paul Beane won a plurality of the votes with 45.33% (about 3,100 votes) of the vote, with just under 7,000 votes cast total. Jerry Bell won 31.57% of the vote, and Tom Keisling won 23.10% of the vote. Bell and Beane will face off with early voting beginning on Tuesday.

Let’s look at how the May 10 election went:

As you can see from the map above, Paul Beane did well throughout the district.

In my mind, it’s not clear what Tom Keisling’s supporters will do in this runoff election. Will they support Bell, Beane, or stay home? Since District 4 has excellent turnout no matter the election, the preference of Tom Keisling’s supporters is likely to be one of the deciding factors of the runoff election.

Another deciding factor will be which way the highest-turnout precincts lean. Precinct 54 (Honey Elementary) alone accounts for nearly 18% (1,194 votes) of the total vote and is always the highest-turnout precinct in any election in Lubbock County.

Other high-turnout precincts in this election are:

• Precinct 52 (11%)
• Precinct 127 (10%)
• Precinct 12 (10%)
• Precinct 30 (9%)
• Precinct 123 (8%)

As with District 2, the outcome of the runoff election is unclear. Both candidates have their work cut out for them.

Lubbock City Council Districts 2 and 4 are headed for a runoff election Saturday, June 7. With that in mind, I have decided to try a little analysis of the May election results.

Lubbock City Council District 2 (LB2) straddles Interstate 27 from 19th street on south. The Interstate is a physical barrier as well as a psychological and cultural one. The situation is improving over time, but the three precincts west of I-27 (19, 25, and 29) are still “anglo precincts,” and the four precincts east of I-27 (6, 20, 26, and 40) are still “minority precincts.” Each half on either side of I-27 accounts for 50% of the votes cast in the Council 2 race.

In the picture above, Floyd Price carried the green precincts and Armando Gonzales carried the purple precincts. The gray precinct (29) was a tie between the two; Armando Gonzales carried it by a single vote.

I believe this runoff is up in the air. Price missed winning outright by less than 5 percentage points, but, as Todd Klein showed us in 2007, a runoff can be won by the underdog. Time will tell if a 46.47% to 37.39% gap can be closed in this race.

I will look at the district 4 results this weekend if I have time (there are more precincts involved). I will say that Jerry Bell has his work cut out for him — Paul Beane won a plurality in every single precinct in district 4.

What are your thoughts on the City Council runoff races?

As of this moment, over 10,000 people have early voted in the May Elections in Lubbock County.

This morning, an online petition to reconsider the current implementation of the Visitor Center was launched. (I do not necessarily support or oppose this particular petition, nor do I have anything to do with the group that is circulating it. I am just pleased to see an online petition dealing strictly with a Lubbock issue.)

Over the weekend, Lubbock City Council Member Todd Klein released the Visitor Center research documents which he requested on Friday on his website. This is the right direction for local government to take — openness with information that is used to make decisions. In the future I hope we have this type of openness without having to ask.

I think these are milestones along the way to a more transparent city government with a more engaged citizenry.

Like it or not, the City of Lubbock has started to tear down the South Beach nightclub building, which was purchased in order to build a visitor center.

The visitor center — and more importantly the manner in which one is constructed or even conceived of — has come under intense public scrutiny recently. Also, Council members Klein and Leonard tried to revisit the current 6-10 million dollar plan with no success.

Some even consider the closing of South Beach to be a catalyst for much of Lubbock’s political activity in the past two years. It provided an excuse to circulate three petitions to attempt to recall Linda DeLeon. It got Armando Gonzales on the radio and running for the City Council. It’s drawn attention to the real consequences of downtown redevelopment. It’s called into question who stands to benefit from downtown redevelopment and whether it’s above-board.

I think that downtown redevelopment is a worthy and even necessary goal, and that it’s okay for both public and private money to be used to make it happen. But, the particular details of how it happens will have to be watched very closely indeed.

Lubbock’s most accessible elected official is having another town hall meeting tonight at 6:00p.m. at Parsons Elementary (56th & Elgin). The meeting is for District 3 residents, but all are welcome. I’ve heard that there may be candidates for non-city positions there to speak as well.

Be there or be square!

Well, this certainly is interesting:

demandanaudit.com

I would like to see a side-by-side rebuttal from the Martin Campaign or from someone who can explain the Martin side of the AAG issue. Any takers?

Normally I’m not the biggest fan of KFYO AM 790, but, since Chad Hasty has taken over the morning show there, things have opened up a great deal. Case in point: KFYO will host the first (and likely only) Lubbock Mayoral debate featuring all four candidates. It will take place on their morning show Tuesday, April 29 from 7AM-9AM.

Via Chad Hasty’s blog:

This debate will feature ALL the candidates. That’s right you will hear from Mayor David Miller, Tom Martin, Roger Settler, and Gilbert Montes. This is the only debate that has all 4 candidates participating. We felt that it was important to invite all the candidates since they will appear on the ballot, and all the candidates have a right to express their opinion. People want to hear others ideas and beliefs on the City, and we think it’s important to hear them.

The debate will be 2 hours long and will focus on the issues that concern you. The candidates will also be allowed to interact and ask each other questions. The debate will be moderated of course by myself and Rex. Listeners will also be invited to submit their own questions via email. All you have to do is send an email to chad@kfyo.com

Way to go, KFYO and Chad!

Also, don’t forget that Todd Klein’s town hall meeting will take place at 6:00pm on the evening of the 29th at Parsons Elementary. Hooray for two great strides for political openness in Lubbock in one day!

Mayor David Miller gave a press conference today regarding the city’s health insurance/administration woes.

Former City Councilman (and current candidate for Mayor) Tom Martin responded with his own press conference about the same topic.

Both full videos are a lot to digest, and I think we are going to see more of this issue as the City election approaches.

The City of Lubbock will hold an election on Saturday, May 10 along with other cities, area school districts, and water districts. Today I want to focus on the City of Lubbock election only. We have elections in City Council districts 2 and 4 as well as the Mayor.

My prediction: All three races could go to a June runoff election, and I believe that all three races will go to a runoff.

My reasoning is as follows. In the race for Mayor, David Miller and Tom Martin will be in pretty much a dead heat for the top spot — more or less a rematch of 2006. Roger Settler has enough name recognition to pull upwards of 20% of the vote. Two front-runners pulling roughly the same number of 80% of the voters plus a 20% candidate equals a runoff between Miller and Martin.

In City Council District 2, I anticipate a similar situation with two front-runners and a minor candidate. Incumbent Floyd Price and challenger Armando Gonzales will be the top contenders, and challenger Gilbert Salinas will draw just enough votes to force a runoff.

In City Council District 4, I anticipate a runoff between Paul Beane and Jerry Bell. I believe that there is no clear front-runner in this race — each candidate will basically bring out their own “base” of voters plus whatever uncommitted voters they can. I just think that Beane and Bell will draw the most votes. We will probably have a 40-40-30 or 35-33-32 type of situation.

What are your predictions for the 2008 City of Lubbock election?

Local candidates are getting more web-savvy these days, and most of our Lubbock City Council candidates have a basic website up by this point. Here’s what I’ve been able to find so far:

City Council District 2

Armando Gonzales
www.armandogonzales.com

Floyd Price (incumbent)
City of Lubbock Website

Gilbert Salinas
no website

City Council District 4

Paul Beane
www.paulbeane.com

Jerry Bell
bell4lubbock.com

Tom Keisling
no website

City Council District 6

Jim Gilbreath (incumbent)
City of Lubbock Website

Mayor

Tom Martin
www.tommartinformayor.com

David Miller (incumbent)
City of Lubbock Website

Roger Settler
no website

If I’ve left out a website, please let me know in the comments.