Comments on: May Election Analysis: Lubbock City Council District 4 http://lubbockleft.com/2008/05/23/may-election-analysis-lubbock-city-council-district-4/ A strong progressive voice in Lubbock, TX Fri, 18 May 2012 03:48:45 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2.1 By: Lubbock Left http://lubbockleft.com/2008/05/23/may-election-analysis-lubbock-city-council-district-4/#comment-1959 Lubbock Left Fri, 23 May 2008 23:55:29 +0000 http://lubbockleft.com/2008/05/23/may-election-analysis-lubbock-city-council-district-4/#comment-1959 Keisling was pretty much in the 20th percentile in each precinct. Bell was in the 20th or 30th percentile in each precinct. I could do a map for Keisling and Bell later this weekend, but the Beane one pretty much tells the story. Ordinarily, you are correct: runoffs are an exercise in pure GOTV. Whoever brings back the most of their supporters will win. The reason I am skeptical about that being the whole story is that district 4 in particular always turns out to vote in high numbers. In other words, Keisling's supporters are likely to bevoters who always turn out in every possible election for which they can turn out. Keisling was pretty much in the 20th percentile in each precinct. Bell was in the 20th or 30th percentile in each precinct. I could do a map for Keisling and Bell later this weekend, but the Beane one pretty much tells the story.

Ordinarily, you are correct: runoffs are an exercise in pure GOTV. Whoever brings back the most of their supporters will win.

The reason I am skeptical about that being the whole story is that district 4 in particular always turns out to vote in high numbers. In other words, Keisling’s supporters are likely to bevoters who always turn out in every possible election for which they can turn out.

]]> By: fatdaddy http://lubbockleft.com/2008/05/23/may-election-analysis-lubbock-city-council-district-4/#comment-1958 fatdaddy Fri, 23 May 2008 23:37:46 +0000 http://lubbockleft.com/2008/05/23/may-election-analysis-lubbock-city-council-district-4/#comment-1958 Wow! That's a very interesting map. Do you have something similar for Keisling? Common sense would tell you that it will be the Keisling supporters who will now chose between Bell & Beane. I say that and I could be very wrong because historically the turnout for a runoff is crumby compared to the general election. So the runoff might just be a contest of who can get their supporters to actually take the time to vote. Wow! That’s a very interesting map. Do you have something similar for Keisling? Common sense would tell you that it will be the Keisling supporters who will now chose between Bell & Beane. I say that and I could be very wrong because historically the turnout for a runoff is crumby compared to the general election. So the runoff might just be a contest of who can get their supporters to actually take the time to vote.

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