The City of Lubbock will hold an election on Saturday, May 10 along with other cities, area school districts, and water districts. Today I want to focus on the City of Lubbock election only. We have elections in City Council districts 2 and 4 as well as the Mayor.
My prediction: All three races could go to a June runoff election, and I believe that all three races will go to a runoff.
My reasoning is as follows. In the race for Mayor, David Miller and Tom Martin will be in pretty much a dead heat for the top spot — more or less a rematch of 2006. Roger Settler has enough name recognition to pull upwards of 20% of the vote. Two front-runners pulling roughly the same number of 80% of the voters plus a 20% candidate equals a runoff between Miller and Martin.
In City Council District 2, I anticipate a similar situation with two front-runners and a minor candidate. Incumbent Floyd Price and challenger Armando Gonzales will be the top contenders, and challenger Gilbert Salinas will draw just enough votes to force a runoff.
In City Council District 4, I anticipate a runoff between Paul Beane and Jerry Bell. I believe that there is no clear front-runner in this race — each candidate will basically bring out their own “base” of voters plus whatever uncommitted voters they can. I just think that Beane and Bell will draw the most votes. We will probably have a 40-40-30 or 35-33-32 type of situation.
What are your predictions for the 2008 City of Lubbock election?