Lubbock Left

Today the A-J reports that West Texas Democrats’ momentum lags on the South Plains. Like any hardworking Lubbock Democrat who reads this headline, I was a little bit ticked. So, if that’s the situation in which you find yourself, let me elaborate on the 2008 election forecast before you take the sentiment of this A-J article to heart.

First, let’s look at Lubbock’s Texas House races. I agree that, on the surface, it’s embarrassing for the Party not to have a candidate for State House in TX-83 or TX-84, the two House districts which contain Lubbock County. However, let’s look at the situation more closely.

In 2006 we had candidates for both seats: John Miller for TX-83 (held by Delwin Jones) and Pearlie Mayfield for TX-84 (held by Carl Isett). 2006 was John’s second attempt to oust Delwin, who — as factions of the local Republican Party have learned — is an unstoppable juggernaut of incumbency. He barely has any opposition within his own party in 2008 — one candidate filed at the last minute. John Miller is a fine candidate who has refocused his efforts on the Lubbock County Commissioner’s Court in 2008. Someone stepping into John’s former role as Delwin’s opponent would either have to be famous and wealthy already or unconcerned about losing.

TX-84 is a slightly different story. The 2006 race was a boondoggle and a half. Our candidate at the time, recruited at the very last minute, never made more than a handful of public appearances. Her campaign staff failed to raise any significant money to run the race. We learned the hard way that the base Democratic vote in TX-84 — what you get when you have a name on the ballot and nothing else — is about 33%. That is actually an encouraging statistic, and I was very psyched to find a worthy opponent for Carl Isett for 2008. Our candidates committee found and nurtured such a candidate, but he decided near the end of the filing period that he wanted to run for Congress instead. So, we are left with no one to oppose Carl Isett in 2008. The upside is that we have an exciting Congressional primary race on our hands, which should help bring people back into the Party.

Since we don’t have Texas House candidates in Lubbock County, we are left with the makings of a very focused strategy: gain ground on the Commissioner’s Court and generate excitement for the Congressional race. It’s not as good as having a full ballot, but exciting nonetheless.

West Texas Democrats are never idle, so expect very active campaigns for the races we are running.